From our GFD Insights Blog
Listing all items tagged with: Historical
200 Years of the United States Stock Market in One Graph
The Course of the Exchange made the first attempt to break the stock market down into sectors in 1811 when it expanded its coverage of stocks to include shares other than the three sisters, the Bank of England, South Sea stock and East India Company that dominated the English stock market in the 1700s.
Twenty securities were listed in The Course of the Exchange from 1747 to 1811 as a group. On January 1, 1811, coverage expanded to two pages and stocks were divided into different sectors: canals, docks, assurance, water works and miscellaneous companies. On August 30, 1811, Iron Railways were added as a sector, including the...
300 years of the Equity-Risk Premium
The equity-risk premium (ERP) is one of the most important variables in finance. In theory, riskier stocks should provide a higher return than risk-free government bonds, but unfortunately, this is not always true. Different factors drive return to stocks and bonds. Bond returns are driven by inflation; stock returns are driven by corporate cash flows. The two will vary independently of one another. It is not risk alone that determines the equity-risk premium. ...
- 350 Years of English Leadership Global Financial Data is completing its collection of data for the English stock market. The UK stocks database includes data on 25,000 companies from 1657 when the East India Company started trading in London to 1985. GFD has written two other articles, “Four Centuries of Global Leadership” and “Two Centuries of American Leadership” which analyze how leadership in the global and American economies, with leadership defined as the largest listed company by...
- A Century of Chinese Stocks and Bonds Global Financial Data has the most extensive database on historical stocks available anywhere in the world. GFD has collected data on stocks that listed on the London Stock Exchange from the 1600s until 2018. London was the financial center of the world until World War II, and many companies in emerging markets listed their shares on the London Stock Exchange before a stock exchange even existed in that country. After World War I, many companies listed on...
A Century of Peace: Bear Markets in the 1800s
GFD has calculated a global index of stocks that begins in 1602 and continues until the present. With this index, we can track the changes in global stock markets over the past 400 years, determine when bear markets occurred and study the causes of those bear markets.
We have already shown that you can divide up the history of equity markets into four eras: the period of Mercantilism (1600-1799) during which a few international trade companies dominated stock exchanges, Free Trade (1800-1914) during which railroads, finance and other industries grew in size, Regulation (1914-1981) during which government regulation and...
A Revised Stock Index for Australia
GFD is revising its stock index for Australia because it can now use data on Australian shares that were listed in London to supplement the data that already exists from Sydney and other Australian exchanges. Australia has one of the highest returns of any stock market in the world, but this is in part due to problems with the indices that were calculated in the 1950s and the biases in that data. Historical data for Australia was calculated by Lamberton in the 1950s, but the data are limited to commercial companies and ignores returns to mining and finance companies. A similar problem exists with the indices calculated by Schumann...
Abraham Lincoln Unites the East and the West
Many people believe that Abraham Lincoln was the greatest President of the United States. Not only did his steadfast leadership help the United States to survive the Civil War, but as President he pursued his vision of a united country, free from slavery and war. Lincoln’s vision of America went beyond winning the Civil War and freeing the slaves and extended to uniting the East and West by building a transcontinental railroad across the United States. As President, Lincoln was instrumental in approving the three routes that eventually crossed the continent to bring the two halves of the country together and ensure that the United States...
- America’s Longest Bear Market We know that the worst bear market in United States history occurred between 1929 and 1932 when the S&P Composite fell 86%, returning the stock market back to levels it hadn’t seen since the 1800s. But what is the longest bear market and how long did it last? To answer this question, you have to understand GFD’s definition of a bear market as a 20% decline in the stock market and a bull market as a 50% increase in the stock market. If the stock market...
An Index for the First Two Centuries of Stock Markets
Global Financial Data has produced indices that cover global markets from 1601 until 1815 as a first step toward creating a World Index that provides data on equities from 1601 until 2018. As we have discussed in another blog, “The Fifth Financial Era: Singularity,” you can divide financial market history over the past 400 years into four eras of Monopolies and Funds (1600-1815),
- Are We Headed for a Second Great Reversal? Global Financial Data has added Share Value Indices for over 90 global markets with over a century of data for major countries. Share value indices allow analysts to determine how the number of shares outstanding has changed over time in order that they can differentiate between changes in price as a source of changes in market capitalization and changes in the number of shares outstanding in market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated by...
Bear: 24 and Counting
The U.S. stock market fell into a bear market on March 12, 2020 ending the bull market that began in 2009. The bull market began on March 9, 2009 and peaked on February 19, 2020. During this raging bull, the S&P 500 rose 400% between 2009 and 2020, the Dow Jones Industrials rose 351% between 2009 and 2020 and the NASDAQ Composite 674%!
BIRDS, BOATS AND BONDS IN VENICE: THE FIRST AAA GOVERNMENT ISSUE
When most people think of Venice, they think of the visuals of Venice: the canals, the gondoliers, the paintings by famous artists such as Canaletto or Titian, the Bienniale, or St Mark’s Square (named after the saint whose relics the Venetians stole from Alexandria in 828 by hiding them beneath pork to get them past the Muslim inspectors) and its pestering pigeons.
BIRDS, BOATS AND
Could the American Stock Market’s Capitalization Soon be Twice GDP?
The Great Bull Market of 2009 to 2019 continues to push the stock market to new highs. The capitalization of the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ is now about $37.5 trillion which is equal to 174% of America’s Gross Domestic Product. If the market continues to rise, the American stock market will soon have its largest Market Capitalization/GDP Ratio (MCap/GDP) in history.
The American stock market first exceeded 100% of GDP in September 1929 before it crashed to its 1932 lows at less than 25% of GDP. The stock market’s capitalization didn’t exceed GDP again until 1996. The Dot.com Bubble of the late 1990s pushed the...
- Dow Jones’s 22,000 Point Mistake One of the long-term components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been IBM. The company was originally added to the Dow Jones Industrials on March 26, 1932 in a reshuffle involving eight stocks including Coca-Cola, Nash Motors (later American Motors) and Proctor & Gamble. On March 13, 1939, however, both IBM and Nash Motors were removed from the average and replaced by American Telephone & Telegraph and United Aircraft Corp. (now United...
Dunkin’ Doesn’t Do Donuts but they Do Do Profits
I often crave donuts being the sugar lover that I am. And I am not alone here at Global Financial Data. On the way to the office there is a local Donut shop called Rose Donuts & Cafe, which has the best donuts as is depicted in Figure 1 — fluffy, fresh, overly large delights such as maple bars, cake donuts, sprinkles, chocolate glazed, old fashioned, Bavarian crème filled goodies, and cinnamon rolls so large you could quarter them and still be stuffed. So many flavors to choose from, French-croissants and fresh baked muffins.