Perspectives on economics and finances with GFD

Stocks Bounce Back in the Second Quarter

  So far the coronavirus has given investors a wild ride during the first half of the year.  Virtually every stock market in the world declined in value during the first quarter of 2020 and virtually every stock market bounced back during the second quarter.  Although only the NASDAQ bounced back to new highs, and both Denmark and the United States are up for 2020, most stock markets declined during the first half of 2020. Nevertheless, most stock markets throughout the world recovered the majority of their losses during the first quarter of the year during the second quarter. Table 1 provides data on percentage returns for the month of June, the first quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2020 for 21 countries and 3 regions. As Table 1 shows, every stock market was down during the first quarter and up during the second quarter.  

Country Jun-20 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Australia 2.20 -24.87 17.43
Austria -0.59 -33.27 10.53
Belgium 2.94 -29.59 9.76
Canada 2.12 -21.59 15.97
Denmark 0.37 -9.73 16.14
Finland -0.46 -20.40 17.20
France 4.65 -26.82 12.85
Germany 4.54 -25.35 22.15
India 7.68 -28.57 18.49
Ireland 1.45 -28.26 15.92
Italy 5.99 -27.54 13.84
Japan -0.31 -13.08 11.10
Netherlands 5.34 -21.15 17.42
New Zealand 4.89 -15.76 16.31
Norway -0.35 -23.43 8.60
South Africa 7.68 -22.06 22.19
Spain 2.16 -29.39 6.42
Sweden 2.16 -18.39 16.38
Switzerland 1.54 -9.84 8.09
United Kingdom 1.53 -24.80 8.77
United States 2.71 -17.66 20.19
World 2.51 -20.10 15.93
World x/USA 3.22 -23.00 10.61
Europe 3.88 -25.39 10.06

Table 1. Monthly and Quarterly Returns in 2020            It should be remembered that the month of July and the third quarter of the year are often the weakest quarters of the year.  July is not the best performing month in any country in the world, and the second quarter is the worst performing quarter in seven of the twenty-one countries we cover.  On average, the world index rises by 0.76% in the third quarter, but the world x/USA index rises only 0.01%. Since the world has gone through a rapid recovery during the second quarter of 2020, some markets are likely to fall back during the third quarter of 2020.  We can only warn investors to be cautious for the third quarter of 2020. The monthly scorecard for June and tables covering returns in 21 countries and 3 regions are provided below. As always, best months are marked in green and worst months in red. June Monthly Scorecard Smallest Monthly Increase – Belgium, Canada, France, South Africa Fewest Monthly Increases – Austria, Belgium, Canada, Netherlands, Spain Best Month – Finland (1945), Ireland (1847), United Kingdom (1720), Europe (1864) Worst Month – Germany (1948) Largest Quarterly Increase – India Fewest Quarterly Increases – Finland, Norway, Sweden Largest Monthly Increase Since 1900 – Belgium Smallest Monthly Increase Since 1900 – France, South Africa Fewest Monthly Increases Since 1900 – Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, South Africa, Spain, United Kingdom, World, World x/USA, Europe Best Month Since 1900 –  Finland (1945) Worst Month Since 1900 – Germany (1948) Most Quarterly Increases Since 1900 – New Zealand Fewest Quarterly Increases Since 1900 – Finland, Norway, Sweden

Events in Time Anniversaries: August 2020

  25 years ago: August 1995 S&P 500: 561.88 (vs. 3351.28 in 08/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 6.28% (vs. 0.57% in 08/2020) Gold: $382.35 (vs. $2067.15 in 08/2020) Oil: $17.895 (vs. $41.93 in 08/2020) GBP/USD: 1.5495 (vs. 1.305 in 08/2020) US GDP: $7,581 billion (vs. $19,409 billion in 06/2020) US Population: 266 million (vs. 331 million in 2020) 08/01/1995: Westinghouse agrees to buy CBS for $5.4 billion. The interbank loan market stopped working due to concerns about connected lending in many new banks. 08/02/1995: Saudi Arabia's King Fahd issues a decree replacing all members of the Council of Ministers who do not have blood ties so the royal Family. While most of the Council's top positions are unaffected by the reshuffling, Oil Minister Hisham Nazer is replaced with Ali bin Ibrahim al-Naimi. (WSJ) 08/03/1995: Union Pacific will acquire Southern Pacific in a $3.9 billion pact -- creating the largest U.S. railroad. 08/05/1995: The city of Knin, Croatia, a significant Serb stronghold, is captured by Croatian forces during Operation Storm. The date is celebrated in Croatia as Victory Day. 08/10/1995: Oklahoma City bombing: Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols are indicted for the bombing. Michael Fortier pleads guilty in a plea-bargain for his testimony. 08/24/1995: Microsoft's launch of Windows 95 is met with eager demand, possibly hitting $700 million in sales the first day. 08/27/1995: Chemical Banking and Chase Manhattan plan a $10 billion merger, unseating Citicorp as the largest U.S. bank. 08/31/1995: Time Warner reaches a tentative pact to acquire Turner for $8 billion -- creating the world's largest media company. The Bank of Japan cuts its discount rate to half a percentage point from 1%. Orange County officials hammer out a 15-year financial-recovery plan.   50 years ago: August 1970 S&P 500: 81.52 (vs. 3351.28 in 08/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 7.49% (vs. 0.57% in 08/2020) Gold: $35.80 (vs. $2067.15 in 08/2020) Oil: $3.21 (vs. $41.93 in 08/2020) GBP/USD: 2.3836 (vs. 1.305 in 08/2020) US GDP: $1,067 billion (vs. $19,409 billion in 06/2020) US Population: 209 million (vs. 331 million in 2020) 08/07/1970: Ninety-day Mid-East cease-fire arranged. 08/15/1970: Patricia Palinkas becomes the first woman to play professionally in an American football game. 08/17/1970: Venera 7 launched. It will later become the first spacecraft to successfully transmit data from the surface of another planet (Venus). 08/18/1970: Biggest trading day in 122-year history of Chicago Board of Trade. Record 309 million bushels of grain changed hands, 13% above previous record on June 16, 1966. 08/23/1970: Organized by Mexican American labor union leader Cesar Chavez, the Salad Bowl strike, the largest farm worker strike in U.S. history, begins. 08/29/1970: Chicano Moratorium against the Vietnam War, East Los Angeles, California. Police riot kills three people, including journalist Rubin Salazar.   100 years ago: August 1920 S&P 500: 7.7294 (vs. 3351.28 in 08/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 5.67% (vs. 0.57% in 08/2020) Gold: $20.67 (vs. $2067.15 in 08/2020) Oil: $6.10 (vs. $41.93 in 08/2020) GBP/USD: 3.555 (vs. 1.305 in 08/2020) US GDP: $84 billion (vs. $19,409 billion in 06/2020) US Population: 106.46 million (vs. 329 million in 2020) 08/09/1920: Mr. Chamberlain announces decision to end bread subsidy before the end of the financial year. Bolshevist peace terms announced in Commons. 08/10/1920: Ottoman sultan Mehmed VI's representatives sign the Treaty of Svres that divides up the Ottoman Empire between the Allies. Greece acquires Eastern Thrace and is assingned administration of the area of Smyrna for 5 years. 08/11/1920: The Latvian-Soviet Peace Treaty, which relinquished Russia's authority and pretenses to Latvia, is signed, ending the Latvian War of Independence. 08/13/1920: Polish-Soviet War: the Battle of Warsaw begins and will last till August 25. The Red Army is defeated. 08/14/1920: A security agreement is signed between Czechoslovakia and the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes. 08/16/1920: Ray Chapman of the Cleveland Indians is hit on the head by a fast ball thrown by Carl Mays of the New York Yankees, and dies early the next day. Chapman was the second player to die from injuries sustained in a Major League Baseball game, the first being Doc Powers in 1909. 08/18/1920: The Nineteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution is ratified, guaranteeing women's suffrage. 08/25/1920: Polish-Soviet War: Battle of Warsaw, which began on August 13, ends with theRed Army's defeat. 08/30/1920: Battle of Giby: Lithuanian withdrawal successfully mediated by French at request of Poland during Polish-Lithuanian War 08/31/1920: The first radio news program is broadcast by 8MKin Detroit, Michigan. The total defeat of the Russian Fourth, Fifteenth and Sixteenth Armies marked the end of the battle.   200 years ago: August 1820 S&P 500/GFD US-100: 1.633 (vs. 3351.28 in 08/2020) 10-year U.S. Government Bond Yield: 4.513% (vs. 0.57% in 08/2020) Gold: $19.39 (vs. $2067.15 in 08/2020) GBP/USD: 4.5126 (vs. 1.305 in 08/2020) US GDP: $727 million (vs. $19,409 billion in 06/2020) US Population: 9.6 million (vs. 331 million in 2020) 08/24/1820: Liberal Revolution of 1820 against the British-led Regency of William Carr Beresford begins in Porto on 24 August. The Regency's troops decline to act against their countrymen and on 15 September declare for King, Cortes and Constitution. A provisional government is established on 1 October to oversee elections to the Cortes.   © 2020 Global Financial Data. Please feel free to redistribute this Events-in-Time Chronology and credit Global Financial Data as the source.

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